Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States of America.
I say this with confidence because I have two reasons, and any of my reasons alone would be enough to convince me.
The first and most basic reason is his strategy. Now, in the beginning, virtually no one took Trump’s campaign seriously. He was a laughing stock and a joke. Most people did not even think he was serious. However, as time has gone on, things are obviously turning out very differently. His strategy is spot-on and impeccable.
His first step was to go out and say the most outlandish statements. About Mexicans, about, Islam, about war. You name it. He had seemingly no filter. And in a huge field of candidates to compete against, he stood out. The media gave him billions of dollars of coverage. Trump used this to his advantage and systematically attacked his Republican opponents one-by-one until he was the only one left.
Once Trump was the nominee of the Republican Party, his strategy shifted. His acceptance speech at the RNC was the first where he used a teleprompter. His speeches changed. He was less alienating and outlandish. He became more reasonable and slightly more reserved and calculating in his words.
Trump also also set the stage for the issues. Immigration was not a hot-button issue in this election until Trump made it so. Being anti-establishment? No one cared until Trump and Sanders spoke out against the establishment. Did the people suddenly realize they wanted a change? Whether they did or not, Trump convinced the Republicans that they did.
Once Trump started attacking Hillary, he systematically went after what made people uncomfortable about her. Hillary obviously has a lot of skeletons in her closet, and Trump targeted this. He also targeted her use of the “woman card.”
Trump’s strategy alone would be enough to convince me that he will win, but I have another reason. It involves a section in The Republic by Plato, a dialogue written around 380 BCE about various topics. In book VIII of this dialogue, Socrates discusses the cycle that societies take throughout their lifespan. He argues that society decays as time goes on, eventually leading to Tyranny. The book states that “tyranny develops out of no other constitution than democracy.” Democracy is a system that maximizes both freedom and equality. “When a democracy,” Plato says,” which is thirsting for freedom has evil cupbearers presiding over the feast, and has drunk too deeply of the strong wine of freedom, then, unless her rulers are very amenable and give a plentiful draught, she calls them to account and punishes them, and says that they are cursed oligarchs.”
The book describes a political figure who offers himself as the answer to everyone’s problems. He is usually rich and lives a lifestyle far different from the common man, but he is still accepted by many. What Socrates and Plato describe this man to be doing has many parallels to what Trump is doing.
Does this make Trump a possible tyrant, should he win? Probably not. There are differences between the political systems of today and two millennia ago. The mechanics are the same, however. History is known to repeat itself. Societies run in cycles. I believe we are at the end of a cycle, and Trump is the only candidate on the field who personifies that normally comes next.
Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States.